Winner Takes All

In America, general elections are a zero sum game.

America is a representative democracy and not a direct democracy. Were we a direct democracy, we would choose a president according to the popular vote only. There seems to be such general confusion about our democratic process, when what seems complex is clearly just misunderstood. Perhaps a metaphor for our national discourse.

There are 100 senators, two for each state, regardless of the size of the state. However, there are 435 representatives that comprise the House of Representatives, and these seats are allotted a congressional district per 700,000 people approximately. Now, congressional districts are apportioned according to the number of people counted in a district, which is precisely why the national census matters. Every person counts in a representative democracy. Remember, taxation with representation is the basis of America’s founding principle. Thus, wherever one may live in the United States (and her territories), one may bring an issue to his or her representative for resolution.

During general elections, we vote on a slew of propositions that we have determined will give more power (and protections) to the people and these issues vary by state.

Power and protections are words that may be substituted with freedom and choice.

There are 538 electors, or slates as they are called, who represent the will of the people in America. To give you an example, California has 54 electors and Nevada has 6 electors. Pennsylvania has 19 and Georgia has 16. The National Archives, as the record keeper of America, provides an accurate accounting of electors for each state.

Further, America is divided into a bicameral legislature, which is one of the three bodies of government. The upper chamber is the Senate (100) and the lower chamber is the House of Representatives (435). The legislative branch is one of three branches of government that constitutes our representative democracy, the other two are the judicial and executive branches. Three branches of government serve as checks and balances, thereby inhibiting unchecked power from absolute control and corruption.

When people claim they want to do away with the electoral college, what they are really saying is they want to do away with representative democracy. In a place like America, that values freedom and due process, direct democracy does not bode well for a republic. A case in point. In Gaza, in 2006, Hamas was voted into power by a direct democracy approach, and we can see how this did not work out so well for the Palestinians. Terrorists ruthlessly subjugated Palestinians to poverty and hopelessness.

The way the electoral college works is that the winner takes all, so in actuality, it is the popular vote that wins the presidency (in almost every case except five so far). And here is why. With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, who apportion their electoral votes, in the other 48 states, whatever candidate wins the most (popular) votes gets all the slate, or electoral votes for the state. For example, in California, it is expected the majority of the eligible voters will choose candidate VP Harris, and thus all 54 of California’s electoral votes will go to VP Harris. This same process follows for all 48 states. Now, in Maine and Nebraska, whoever wins the popular vote gets two electoral votes, and whoever wins the congressional district gets one vote. Currently, Maine has two (2) congressional districts and Nebraska has three (3) congressional districts.

Electors are chosen for every election cycle and are generally party loyalists. It may not be written in stone, per se, but there is an unspoken expectation that the elector casts his or her vote for their winning party’s ticket, as not doing so may result in fines.

Now, there is a major process after election day that unfolds. The next major date is December 17, a date that has personal significance to me (my mother’s birthday) when electors meet up in their state and record their votes. Then, on January 6, Congress counts the votes, and certifies the next President of the United States of America.

The American president is then sworn into office on January 20th, Inauguration Day.

From election day, when it is apparent who wins the electoral college up until inauguration day, the president-elect is involved in a major transition of power.

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Another thing to bear in mind is that five of the 14 U.S. territories do not vote in the presidential elections, and thus, they effectively have taxation without representation.

The permanently inhabited territories are: American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. While Washington, D.C. is not a state in the literal sense, it is in fact represented in the election with three electoral votes. Therefore, D.C. is the de facto (unspoken) 51st state of the union.

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The 2016 election outcome was 304 to 227. Hillary was blindsided by the blue wall.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million votes, as she won in large states like California and New York. But she lost in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the proverbial blue wall, which cost her the 44 slates she needed to win.

Now, the same thing happened with Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 votes. But Florida was widely contested, all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court in fact. Ultimately, the Supreme Court allotted Florida’s 30 electoral votes to Bush, and he very narrowly won the electoral vote, 271 to 266.

In short, a state with a smaller population, but whose electoral votes matter, is often precisely what determines the presidency in America, for which the game is zero-sum.

I have Trump at a guaranteed 224 and Harris at a guaranteed 257, but this number for Harris assumes Michigan, which is currently neck and neck as of this writing. Thus, all Harris needs to win is either Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Anything more than this is just gravy. There are currently eight likely scenarios for a Harris win.

At minimum, VP Harris may win 273 to 265, which assumes either Georgia or North Carolina go to Harris. Maximally, she wins 314 to 224, a major landslide, which means she wins Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Nevada plus maintains the 257.

Frankly, I predict a Harris landslide and that she will also be president for the next 8 years. America is tired of the extreme volatility and instability by which we have been besieged these past 8 years. The American people, the great majority, are speaking loudly and clearly, and letting the world and each other know, we are so ready to do something different now. We are ready to move onward, upward and forward. We are ready for real change, and meaningful progress and to take society to the next level.

Also, this race has boiled down to an epic battle of the sexes. I strongly believe many women, much more than expected and anticipated, will out vote men 2 to 1 easily.

There are many women who will defy their husbands and mates at the ballot box and stand up for their freedom, their autonomy, for their daughters and granddaughters, for the future of all people to no longer be held down by an oppressive patriarchy.

May God Bless the United States of America. May light always transcend evil and darkness. And may America remain a beacon of hope for all the peoples of the world.

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Diana Hochman is the author of Dispelling the Myth, a novel. Purchase a copy here.